If Britain was to leave the EU would trade between the UK and the Commonwealth increase?

Among the 53 members the Commonwealth contains six countries, known as CAMBIS (Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Britain, India and South Africa), accounted for over 84% of its trade, around £1.5 trillion per year. 

Of total exports of around £520 billion, the UK exported over £54 billion to the Commonwealth, less than a quarter of its EU trade but growing steadily, nonetheless, at 10% per year. Over the last two years exports have risen to India (by 34%), South Africa ( by 31%), Australia (by 30%) and Canada (by 18%).

Yet, whilst the CAMBIS countries fight for free trade with the EU, on the 23rd of June, the UK will be voting to either stay in or leave. 

The EU has already agreed free trade agreements with 64% of Commonwealth countries, and is negotiating with another 26%, and by 2020 most key Commonwealth countries would have free trade deals with the EU. 

If we were out of the EU would the UK be in a better position to sign trade agreements with the Commonwealth countries, or indeed the US. 

 Would we, for instance , be able to negotiate better terms with the USA than the terms currently being negotiated under the EU/US trade agreement, known as TTIP? 

Turning to immigration and the Commonwealth, what did Boris Johnson mean when he said recently ‘…we need to raise our eyes beyond Europe, forging and intensifying links with countries that are going to be growing in the decades ahead — countries that offer immense opportunities for British goods, people, services and capital. 

The UK must have a truly global perspective, and not think of itself as ‘little Europeans run by Brussels’’?

The Commonwealth Freedom of Movement Organisation (CFMO), for example, advocates the free movement of  people along the principles of Article 45 of the EU Treaty.  

But this is not for all Commonwealth countries, only between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK. Is this what Boris and the other Leavers mean when they talk about the opportunities of the Commonwealth?

Under Article 45, citizens of each EU member may - look for a job in any of the member states; work there without needing a work permit; reside there for that purpose; stay there even after employment has finished; enjoy equal treatment with nationals in access to employment, working conditions and all other social and tax advantages. 

We benefit from going into mainland Europe as much as mainland Europeans do when they come to the UK

A clear distinction can be drawn between these ‘White’ Commonwealth countries, as promoted by CFMO, who already enjoy special travel, trade, social and cultural connections, and the ‘other’ Commonwealth countries. CFMOs campaign for free movement between the white Commonwealth countries would, undoubtedly, get a boost if the UK was to leave the EU.

So, when British-Bangladeshi business leaders believe an opening for desperately needed chefs from the Indian sub-continent to come and work in the British curry industry, if the UK was to leave the EU, he and his colleagues may be in for a surprise.

The Commonwealth with 1.5 billion people and Europe with 500 million people are two organisations in which the UK could play a pivotal if not leading role.  

They are not mutually exclusive.  

It is, therefore, not a surprise that the CAMBIS nations have said that Britain’s best contribution to the Commonwealth would be to stay in the EU, become a full, active member and shape its institutions, practices and policies.  Not leave.

In my view, the UK needs to stay in the EU more than ever and the people of the UK, especially the recently settled immigrants from the Commonwealth need to look beyond the false ‘immigration’ narrative being carelessly promoted by odd-bedfellows of the Leave campaign and vote to stay in.

Dr Sanawar Choudhury is an Academic, Entrepreneur, Chartered Accountant